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US GDP revised lower; EURUSD revisits 1.15 level 

Summary:

  • US GDP revised lower for Q1
  • EURUSD retests key level as German inflation meets forecasts
  • Facebook lifts crypto ban
  • CZK reacts to surprise CNB hike 
  • Will European markets bounce in July

 US growth in first quarter was slower than previously thought according to the latest GDP figures with an annualised print of 2.0% lower than both the expected (2.2%) and the prior (2.2%). A fall in personal consumption was one of the chief causes for the drop, with growth seemingly slowing after the strong figures seen around the back end of last year. Another point worth making relating to the release was the the GDP price index rose more than the expected 1.9% to show 2.2% which possibly takes the edge off any USD weakness from the data. 

The latest inflation figures form several European countries are out today, with no more important than the German release. The preliminary CPI for Germany came in inline with consensus forecasts with the year-on-year reading showing a 2.1% rise and the month-on-month a 0.1% increase. The EURUSD in particular is at a potentially key level with the world’s most popular cross once more falling to retest the key level around 1.15.

At the beginning of 2018 we have seen several social media companies banning cryptocurrency ads on their media services. Among such companies one can name Twitter, Google or Facebook. However, Facebook learned that the decision may have been too rapid and the company has lifted its ban on such advertisements lately. Crypt markets are fairly mixed on the day with Ripple and Dash lower by a couple percent while Litecoin has gained more than 3%. 

The Czech National Bank lifted rates at its yesterday’s meeting, the move which had been expected just be a few economists surveyed by Bloomberg. As a result, the koruna increased quite notably, but then it erased these gains. Today the Czech currency is trading 0.35% lower against the shared currency and from a technical point of view we could have a brush with a key day on this cross.

June has been a bad month for stock indices but seasonality suggests we could be set for a bounceback next month.  Robust performance in July might be expected based upon the seasonal pattern from the past years. Taking a look at the table (see link) above we can spot that irrespective of the average we have taken into account July has been bringing a positive outcome each year.

 

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