- Bitcoin at a make-or-break 6000$ level
- Will DJIA30 (US30) struggle as the key level is being tested?
- USDPLN faces 3.75 once again
This week does not hold the top-notch calendar events that we got used to - think FED decision, OPEC meeting or the NFP report. But with the Trade Wars raging, markets are as lively as ever. We take a look at three charts that can see a technical conclusion this week.
The Crypto-run that we experienced throughout the 2017 is long over. Bitcoin price is down some 70% from its peak registered in December of the last year. However, we’ve seen some hopeful comments from the crypto believers as the make-or-break level is now being tested. We talk about the round 6000$ support that dates from before the peak as it stopped a sell-off in late 2017 for the first time. It’s been very much respected since then as well stopping the carnage in January and then twice since then. Will buyers be able to repeat the trick this time around?
Bitcoin price is at the key technical level. Source: xStation5
Well, do notice that while the key 6000$ mark worked well as a support it was not enough to reverse the price trend. Indeed the trend through 2018 has been dominantly bearish with a series of lower highs and a clear (especially in recent weeks) downtrend line. So what we can say for sure is that now both the bear and the bulls have been cornered into a small area between the support and a downtrend line and a decision on the direction will have to be made.
It’s been perplexing to see how the US markets ignored the Trade War risk as Europe was all in red. Ultimately that pain hit the Wall Street too and complicated the outlook for the bulls on US30. Do notice that despite all the volatility this year the price remained above the 200-day average indicating a positive trend. Not anymore - we saw a dive below the SMA on Monday and what’s worse we can also have a lower low in place - breaking the series of higher lows that underpinned the upwards trend. To add to it, 200, 100 and 50 day moving averages have now pretty much converged, indicating hesitance of the buying side. Now keep in mind that it could still be a bear’s trap if the market moods improve soon.
A major downturn or a trap for the bears? This week could hold an answer. Source: xStation5
On the FX front the second quarter brought a recovery of the US dollar and more pain for emerging currencies. While the Polish zloty has still fared way better than some emerging counterparts (think lira or the Brazilian real), we’ve seen a 10%+ rally anyway. The first stage of the rally ended at 3.75 and that level is now the key resistance. Buyers have been unable to crack through it twice so there’s a chance for a double top formation (that could ultimately reverse the trend) but obviously a break of 3.75 would negate such outlook. Do notice that moving averages have now turned north, supporting a buying side.
USDPLN is facing the key mark at 3.75. Source: xStation5
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