What will jump out of the inauguration speech by Donald Trump? The economic focus that was lacking in his last week’s press conference that did damage to the US dollar? If so then the dollar is right to appreciate wiating for the event. Having pledged to scrap Trans-Pacific Partnership project in his first day as the President of the United States he may place some points important from the international trade perspective in his address, so currencies like MXN and CAD should also be watched. The oath and speech starts at 5 pm GMT.
While waiting for the ceremony we will get important data from Canada: CPI and retail sales (1:30 pm GMT). There was a broad rebound of inflation across the globe so the market expects the same to happen in Canada - consensus is for a pickup from 1,2% YoY to 1,7%. The three new core measures that started to be published last month ranged form 1.3 to 1.9% YoY, but if they all move higher in this release it could offer some support for CAD, which definitely needs it now after soft BoC governor speech following the last decision. Retail sales is also still quite important as the most visible indicator if the fiscal stimulus is working (beefed up social transfers).
As for the Fed: Patrick Harker starts at 2 pm GMT. His views are hawkish, and this is what the US dollar wants to hear now. John Williams will speak at 6 pm and he has also called for quicker tightening of late.
At 6 pm GMT there will also be a weekly release on the number of active oil rigs in the US - the US output is not crucial for oil prospects, more on this commodity HERE.
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