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Oil looking to break recent range


  • Oil.WTI has traded in a narrow range for the past couple of weeks
  • $2 range from 48.40-50.40 has contained the last 15 closing prices
  • Price currently probing the lower bound and threatening to break out
  • Market remains in downwards channel

The price of oil is sliding so far today with Oil.WTI threatening to break out of its recent range. The market has been coiling in a fairly tight consolidation pattern for the past couple of weeks as shown by the last 15 closes coming in the $2 range from 48.40-50.40.

Longer term price appears to be in a falling channel with a series of lower highs and lower lows printed since the start of the year. The most recent OPEC meeting sparked a collapse in the market despite announcing the extension of the current supply cuts. Recent inventories have also been theoretically supportive of price with a sustained run of declining US stock piles according to the DOE release.

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 Oil.WTI remains in a bearish channel with a series of lower highs and lower lows in tact. Source: xStation

Nonetheless, the market remains under pressure and until there is a break above 50.40 the sequence of lower highs will remain in tact.  A close below 48.40 would be seen as a positive sign for the shorts who will then look to 47.25 as the next swing level. Should this trade and fail to hold then a retest towards $42 then becomes possible.  



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