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Gold hits highest level in 3 months; looking for 8th consecutive day of gains

Summary:

  • Gold moves to its highest level since September above $1310
  • Price on for an 8th consecutive daily gain - longest run since 2011
  • Start of January has had strong seasonality effect in recent years

Gold has risen once more today with the market higher by around 0.8% at the time of writing. The price has continued the rally seen since its December low and you have to go all the way back to mid-September to find higher prices. In fact the market is higher on the day for the 8th time in a row which is the longest winning streak for this asset since 2011. Price has now gained almost $80 since the December low of 1237 was seen just prior to the Fed hiking rates at their final meeting of 2017. 

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 Gold is on a strong run higher having moved back above the $1300 level. Source: xStation

 Looking back at recent years there is a notable seasonality effect at the beginning of January with the market often rising shortly after New Year. The last 4 years have seen strong gains in the price of Gold in the opening weeks of the year and with today’s gains building on recent strength there could be further upside ahead. 

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 In recent years Gold has enjoyed fairly strong gains shortly after the New Year begins. Source: xStation

Looking at the longer term weekly charts from a different perspective reveals that a major bullish development may be close to occurring with an inverse head and shoulders potentially forming. After peaking above 1900 back in 2011 the market has experienced a large drop with a low forming around 1050 towards the end of 2015. This low could be seen as the head in the possible S-H-S setup with the low seen in December 2016 a potential right shoulder. The most important aspect of a S-H-S setup is the neckline and there is some degree of subjectivity here. A falling trendline dating back to 2013 could be seen to be the neckline which currently resides around 1350. A clean break above here could pave the way for a major breakout and would target a move back up near the 1650 level. 

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 A longer term inverse head and shoulders formation could be forming in Gold. Source: xStation

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