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Fed speakers, Ifo dominate Friday

Summary:

  • Friday calendar is dominated by US events
  • There’s a ton of FOMC speeches which could confirm or dispel a dovish tint of the minutes 
  • Ifo is a major release in Europe

Friday’s calendar is mostly about the US data and speeches, most notably from Jerome Powell. The Ifo index is the key figure in Europe as a major deterioration in the PMIs is a concerns for investors (and a burden on the euro) and a weak Ifo could add to those worries. There’s the GDP in the UK but we’d call it relatively minor as it’s the second release and unlikely to bring significant changes. Recall that the 0.1% q/q growth was way below expectations and was one of the reasons why the BoE decided not to raise interest rates. 

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Ifo in Europe and Fed’s speeches are technically the most important releases on Friday. Source: xStation5 

In the US technically a speech from Fed’s chairman Powell looks like the Event of the Day but he speaks on financial stability in Sweden so it could be very much a non-event for the markets! Ironically other speeches could be more important. Investors were a bit puzzled by a softness in the minutes from May’s meeting of the Fed and they may want to see more clarification on prospects for the 4th hike this year. 

On the US data front we have durable orders (1:30pm GMT) and the University of Michigan sentiment idnex (3pm) - both second tier releases that can be dominated by remarks from the Fed.  

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TNOTE inched up this week as US Treasury 10y yields dipped below 3% mark. This was partly a reaction to softer minutes and in that context investors may want to see some clarification from FOMC members. Source: xStation5 

 

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