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Economic calendar: Will Riksbank hint at a hike this year?

Summary:

  • Riksbank is expected to leave rates unchanged, but the focus will be on the forward guidance
  • US durable goods orders should confirm a decline in May, bear in mind that the US stock market to close earlier
  • Crude oil inventories by API should bring another shrinkage

Tuesday is a specific day because of the earlier close of the US stock market on the back of the Independence Day tomorrow (6:00 pm BST). On the other hand, we will be offered some data from the US in the afternoon, but before it happens FX investors should keep a close eye on the Riksbank’s decision.

8:30 am BST - Riksbank’s decision: The Swedish monetary authorities keep forecasting that the first rate hike may occur yet this year (the fourth quarter looks the most probable date), and today’s meeting will be particularly whether they maintain this assumption given the latest (possible) change of the economic backdrop. Notice that the main rate, which is -0.5% right now, is relatively low compared to the rate keeping by the neighbouring Norges Bank and even the European Central Bank (MRO stays at 0%).

2:30 pm BST - Canadian manufacturing PMI: The latest streak of macroeconomic readings has been quite disappointing, hence traders may look for robust prints so as to solidify odds for a rate hike later this month. There is no consensus ahead of this release, but the prior month (May) brought a result of 56.2 points.

3:00 pm BST - US durable goods orders (final): This is the final print, hence its impact on the US dollar should be limited to say the least. The headline is forecast to come in at 0.6% mom while the gauge stripping out transportation is estimated to show a 0.3% drop. It’s worth adding that factory orders will be published at the same time, but there has been no consensus offered. In April factory orders declined 0.8% in monthly terms.

9:40 pm BST - US stocks inventories by API: Oil has caught investors’ attention so far this week, and it could keep this focus on itself. The median estimate before the API release suggests a 3.3 million barrels decrease following a tremendous 9.2 million barrels draw reported last week. Given the price seems to has greater inclination to keep on edging higher one may suspect that another drawdown could encourage market participants to bet on higher crude prices again.

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A possible rise toward a broken trend line could serve as a selling opportunity should today’s API release bring another fall. Source: xStation5

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