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Economic calendar: Will CAD halt its rally?


  • UK’s industrial production could help the GBP
  • Jobs report from the Canadian economy key release for the CAD this week
  • Some central bank speakers on the agenda

Today it’s all about the Canadian jobs report which could yet more buttress the Canadian currency. Let us recall the Loonie gained a foothold in the aftermath of an unexpected rate increase on Wednesday. Nevertheless, UK’s industrial production is followed by the reading from Canada and it could be very important for the pound. In addition, we have a few central bank speeches worth keeping an eye on them.

9:30 am BST - UK’s industrial production: We’ve already known all PMIs for August from the UK’s economy. Those for services and construction surprised significantly to the downside (especially the latter one), however manufacturing PMI proved to be quite resilient to uncertainties surrounding Brexit negotiations. That said, if manufacturing PMI was right, it should be reflected in the data today even as the manufacturing PMI reading was for July (there were two back-to-back increases). The consensus suggests industrial output to come in at 0.4% yoy compared to 0.3% yoy seen last month. Moreover, manufacturing production is expected to rebound yet stronger from 0.6% yoy to 1.7% yoy.

1:30 pm BST - Canadian jobs report: The Canadian dollar has been in demand since the BoC has decided to increase rates by another 25 bps. Let’s remind that it was a second rate rise during the recent two months while the market consensus suggested that a move on rates was a toss-up. The CAD is the strongest currency in the G10 basket this week (although, all major currencies have strengthened against the greenback thus far), hence in order to keep its momentum today’s jobs report should deliver another solid numbers. A net change in employment is estimated to show 15k (the prior reading saw 10.9k), while a jobless rates is supposed to remain at its current level 6.3%. It’s worth mentioning that a structure in an employment change could have key significance.

Central bank speakers:

  • 9:30 am BST - RBA’s Lowe
  • 10:00 am BST - ECB’s Weidmann
  • 12:00 am BST - ECB’s Rimsevics
  • 1:45 pm BST - FED’s Harker

6:00 pm BST - oil rigs count: The data provided by Baker Hughes is released every Friday. We’ve seen some slowdown in that activity of late, which could bode well for oil prices. If that trend is sustained, it could alleviate concerns about rampant US oil output.

link do file download linkThe USCAD remains within a massive downtrend fueled by the BoC’s rate decision. If today’s report disappoints, it could lead to larger profit-taking. Source: xStation5


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