- UK labour market report could bring relief to the British pound
- German ZEW index is forecast to show another slowdown
- US inflation seems to be the largest (possible) market mover today
Admittedly, all eyes may be sill turned to the freshly ended summit in Singapore it’s worth taking a closer look at today’s macroeconomic calendar as it’s been packed with many relevant releases. US inflation for May appears to be a cherry on top, this is especially true when we take into account the Federal Reserve meeting starting today.
9:30 am BST - UK labour market release: The pound was offered a bunch of weak readings yesterday from the industrial front as well as trade. As a result, the currency got back its prior gains, but any further dips are likely to be shallow. In this respect, today’s employment report sounds as a focal point for the GBP in the Tuesday’s calendar. Notice that expectations are not too high, hence a positive surprise may be relatively easy to achieve. Weekly earnings growth (excluding bonuses) should stay at 2.9% yoy while average weekly earnings growth is estimated to fall to 2.5% from 2.6% - both readings for April. On top of that, the unemployment rate ought to stay at 4.2%, and employment is forecast to growth by 120k during three months ended in April.
10:00 am BST - German ZEW index: Growth momentum of the European economy has become a bit more lacklustre of late, and today’s data is to corroborate this theme. The gauge measuring current conditions is expected to drop in June to 85 from 87.4 points, whilst the indicator for expected conditions is projected to decline to -14 from -8.2.
1:30 pm BST - US inflation: The Federal Reserve June meeting kicks off today, and we’ll be offered a bunch of materials tomorrow evening. In the light of quite high expectations related to this event it seems that the US dollar might be subject to a possible retreat afterwards, but before it may happen the inflation report for May will be released. Headline price growth is forecast to build up in May to 2.8% yoy from 2.5% whereas the core gauge should increase to 2.2% from 2.1%.
Central bank speakers:
- 9:30 am BST: BoE’s Carney (he speaks about a financial stability report)
- 3:00 am BST, Wednesday: RBA’s Lowe
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