Friday’s calendar is heavy with releases. The focus will be on the NFP data obviously but investors have much more to look into, starting from the very morning:
PMI indices - until 9:30am GMT in Europe
The PMIs are sometimes overlooked but it’s not the time to go past these releases. Last months brought a deterioration in business surveys especially in Europe and there’s no room for more disappointment, especially with global markets still being this expensive. PMIs in Asia were mixed at best with China at 51.1 but India and Australia down. Flash PMIs surprised to the downside in May in the EMU so we’ll be watchful for revisions. Investors will get first releases in countries like Spain, Sweden (important against a solid streak of data from Sweden), Italy and - most notably - the UK (will the UK economy stop disappointing eventually and have the GBP recover?)
The NFP report (1:30 pm GMT, consensus: employment +185k, wages +2.7% y/y)
As always the NFP is in the spotlight at the beginning of the month. Previous releases and the weakish ADP lowered the bar a bit but honestly even the 185k looks a bit steep. However, the focus will be on wages. The consensus still sees somewhat contained +2.7% but the greenback needs more if it’s about to resume its rally.
What’s the preferred outcome for the US500? High employment, modest wage growth and high ISM. The US stock market could use such a strong package as it tries to avoid the fate of European indices. A sell-off has been averted but do notice that down days attract higher volume and that’s a concern. Source: xStation5
US ISM (3pm GMT, consensus 56.6 pts.)
The ISM which is the preferred version of the PMI in the US saw some deterioration albeit from a very high level last month. Was it just a one off or will it - like Europe - see more cooling off, adding to global slowdown concerns? We shall see today.
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