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Economic calendar: Make it or break it - CAD ahead of jobs report

Summary:

  • Canadian employment report is undoubtedly the most important point in today’s tally
  • Preliminary University of Michigan index should confirm solid consumers’ confidence
  • Baker Hughes ought to report another increase in oil rigs in the US

The final day this week is going to bring a few points of note. The Canadian employment release seems to be an undoubted focal point as the Loonie has gotten back its charm thus far this week being largely supported by surging oil prices. Apart from this reading it’s also worth keeping an eye on the US UoM which could matter for the greenback anyway.

1:30 pm BST - Canada’s jobs report: It’s been choppy trading for the Loonie so far this week, and the final day does not seem to be a whole lot different given a print from the labour market we got. A net change is forecast to total 20k being largely driven by full-time employment (a breakdown of the release could be critical). The jobless rate should stay at 5.8% whereas hourly earnings growth among permanently hired employees is likely to quicken to 3.2% from 3.1% in March.

3:00 pm BST - US University of Michigan: While we were offered a subtle decrease in US consumers’ confidence in April, the underlying trend held onto its robustness. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect confidence to ease negligibly to 98.3 from 98.8, and if so, it could not drive the US dollar too low to be honest. However, the same survey illustrates consumers’ price growth expectations and they may matter even more that they used to. This is especially true when we take into account a slower pace of core inflation in April and weight it against the backdrop of four hikes this years (prior to the yesterday’s inflation report the interest rate market had been assigning 50% for such a scenario).

6:00 pm BST - Oil rigs count: Oil has had a remarkable week being underpinned by the contentious withdrawal of the US from the Iran nuclear agreement, and shored up by the EIA release as well. It’s likely to hold these gains, and if it materializes, it’s going to be the highest close since November 2014.

Central bank speakers for today:

  • 1:30 pm BST - Fed’s Bullard
  • 2:00 pm BST - BoC’s Wilkins
  • 2:15 pm BST - ECB’s Draghi

link do file download linkThe USDCAD has again broken its important level at 1.28, and if it stays there until the end of the day it could constitute a noteworthy technical signal for bears. Source: xStation5

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