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Economic calendar: GBPUSD under pressure

Summary:

  • Fed central banker to speak at crypto conference
  • UK labour market data to be released this week
  • Geopolitical tensions still weigh on the oil market

As usual Monday is calm in terms of macroeconomic releases given that there are no top-tier readings scheduled for today. However, investors may want to stay cautious throughout the day as a vast array of ECB members are expected to deliver their speeches. Moreover, it is worth to note that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will speak at Blockchain technology conference at 2:40 pm BST.

Below there is a full list of major central bank speakers due today:

9:30 am BST - Bank of Portugal Governor Costa

11:00 am BST - ECB’s Mersch

11:15 am BST - ECB’s Lautenschlager

12:45 pm BST - ECB’s Praet

2:40 pm BST - Fed’s Bullard

4:00 pm BST - ECB’s Lautenschlager

5:15 pm BST - ECB’s Praet

6:45 pm BST - ECB’s Coeure

What to watch for the remainder of the week?

Last week was mostly about oil and geopolitics, especially the US withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal that took oil prices to fresh multi-year highs. This issue will stay hot on the market as investors want to know how will Europe ultimately react as it holds the key to future oil prices. Oil traders will also pay attention the weekly report on inventories will GBPUSD will be in the spotlight amid data from UK and US.

Weekly report on US fuel inventories (Wednesday, 3:30pm GMT) 

Make no mistake: oil prices are going to be driven by rumours regarding European purchases from Iran under a new reality of US sanctions. Should the EU (and India for that matter) stop purchasing Iranian oil, market consequences could be very significant. However, this might not be clarified for weeks. Meanwhile, the DOE report on inventories is sure to be released this Wednesday. The report added to price advances last week when it showed a surprise inventory draw. Affected markets: OIL, OIL.WTI.    

UK labour market data (Wednesday, 9:30am GMT) 

As the Wall Street still licks the wounds from a sell-off that took earlier this year the UK100 is back at the all time highs! How is that possible given lackluster data from the UK? The reason is the pound and the Bank of England. Weaker data significantly softened tightening ambitions at the Bank and at the same time led to depreciation of the pound -  both factors being positive for UK100. Investors will await wage data this week as a decent growth in this category looked to be the lone reason for the BoE to be hawkish. Any deterioration here could deliver another hit for the GBP. Affected markets: GBPUSD, UK100. 

US retail sales data  (Tuesday, 1:30pm GMT)

A rally of the US dollar was slowed down last week as the inflation data (mostly PPI but also CPI) turned out to be a bit softer than expected. However, slightly lower than expected CPI was caused mostly by declining prices of new and used cars which could be a one-off factor. This week traders will pay attention to retail sales data as it will show robustness of the demand and thus future inflation prospects. Affected markets: EURUSD, US500.link do file download link

 GBPUSD lost ground after making a double top around 1.4350. It has struggled in the vicinity of the 50% Fibo level in the previous week. Will data set released this week restore faith in the pound? Source: xStation5

 

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