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Economic calendar: GBP at the crossroads ahead of PMI


  • Final PMIs from European economies will be released before noon, UK services PMI to draw the most attention
  • US non-manufacturing ISM seems to be one of the most noteworthy releases afternoon
  • Some central bank speakers on the agenda as well

Tuesday is not going to offer too many releases, nevertheless these kind of days tend to abound in some unexpected events. Before noon investors’ attention will be put on final PMIs as well as UK services PMI. Then it’ll be turn for the US as non-manufacturing ISM for May is slated to be come out. Apart from the data it’s worth looking at speeches of central bankers including those from BoE and ECB.

9:30 am BST - UK services PMI: The Bank of England seems to be walking a tightrope between sluggish economic growth and risks of livelier price growth. On that account each insight coming from soft indicators seems to be particularly important. Till today we got soft gauges for manufacturing as well as construction, but none of these produced a more impressive rebound. However, as you well know, each month most focus is on services, the largest UK economy sector. The median estimate suggests a modest increase to 53 in May. Beside this reading one may also take a look at indicators from Spain and Italy (there are not preliminary readings here).

3:00 pm BST - US services ISM: The US dollar has gained so much over the recent weeks, but there are more and more signs that this rally may have already come to an end. Even as the latest jobs report proved to be really stunning in terms of a change in employment in particular meantime we were offered some a bit disappointing prints (the most recent - factory orders published yesterday). Having the Fed meeting as soon as next week one may suspect that risks have tilted to the downside, and even as the EURUSD could still head lower somewhat, 1.1500/4500 seems to be a line in the sand at the moment. Non-manufacturing ISM is forecast to bring in a bounce to 57.5 (vs. 56.8 previously). Keep in mind that April’s JOLTS will be published at the same time where the median estimate points to 6350k.

9:30 pm BST - US inventories change acc to API: Oil has given back a lot of its gains following revelations that Russia together with Saudi Arabia may ease output cuts relatively soon. The OPEC semi-annual meeting will take place later this month, and till this time we see some downside risks for oil unless tremendous falls in US stockpiles.

Central bank speaker scheduled for today:

  • 10:30 am BST - ECB’s Nowotny
  • 11:00 am BST - BoE’s Cunliffe
  • 6:30 pm BST - ECB’s Weidmann

link do file download linkThe cable keeps struggling around a 1.33 handle, and a series of soft indicators scheduled for today could be conclusive. Source: xStation5


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