- The US NFP and European inflation to fuel more moves on EURUSD
- Monday’s calendar is relatively calm, focus on US data, grains
A start of the final week of vacations has been relatively calm which might be good as investors still need to digest the Jackson Hole conference which resulted in a huge swing of EURUSD to the north. This pair will be in the spotlight as major data from both Europe and US will be released this week:
EMU - CPI (Thursday, 10:00 am BST)
The ECB meeting could be the most interesting event of September. It’s been a long time since the central bank did anything hawkish, so even the smallest modification in its QE could be a huge step for the euro. There’s no doubt that the economic recovery continues, but the ECB focuses mainly on inflation. Prices has risen faster than expected recently and another beat this week could be the final stamp on the ECB’s tapering. As a result, it’s worth looking at the EURGBP. The pair rose to the highest level in years and another positive print could send it even higher.
US - NFP (Friday, 1:30 pm BST), ADP (Wednesday, 1:15 pm BST)
Although the ECB will be in the center of focus in upcoming days, one cannot forget about the Federal Reserve. The FED meets two weeks after the European Central Bank and could announce the balance sheet reduction. While it’s already priced in by the market, the third rate hike (possibly in December) is in doubt as the US data has weakened significantly. However, the last NFP report was pretty stellar. If the job growth continues and wages rise more than expected, the dollar could rebound. In such scenario it’s worth looking at the USDJPY that closely follows US yields.
Other data - UK PMI (Friday, 9:30 am BST), China PMI (Friday, 2:45 am BST)
GBP traders will also find something for them in upcoming week. PMI on Friday could bring an increase in volatility on the British Pound. While the currency has stabilized after the central bank underlined that rates won’t change soon, a change in BOE’s stance shouldn’t be ruled out. China’s PMI could be also interesting as the tension between North Korea and US could have had an impact on economic activity. With China being one of the two biggest economies in the world, it’s a print that one should always look at, especially when trading the AUDUSD.
When it comes to Monday we have 2 macro releases from the US and 2 reports on the grains markets.
In the US there is an advance release of the trade balance for July (1:30pm BST) which is expected to stay in a deficit of nearly $65 billion. There is also a report on manufacturing activity released by the Dallas Fed (3:30pm BST).
Soybean prices have rebounded from a major support zone, just above $900 per 100 bushels. Source: xStation5
Monday is always interesting for the grains market as we have two weekly reports for commodities like corn, wheat and soybean. At 4pm BST we get exports inspections and at 9pm crop conditions.
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