Skip to content


Calendar for today: will CBI data back the GBP?

The markets have received a strong positive signal due to French elections and it looks like no data release now could spoil the mood. The top release today, Ifo index, actually only strengthened the optimism by indicating an increasing economic momentum in 2Q in Germany. What’s still in the calendar today could prove important for CAD and GBP, but highly unlikely to affect the global market sentiment.

11 am BST, UK, CBI business optimism index (released quarterly) and CBI trends. The report proved to offer a push for the GBP in January (the previous quarterly release) and this time the market is prepared to see some correction after that positive surprise and is once again assuming that the strong prints of monthly CBI trends index for new orders should no longer be seen. The last two readings were much larger than expected and the background story for the GBP was recently weakened by poor retail sales. So it seems that the British currency should be quite sensitive to this event. 

link do file download link

 The previous quarterly CBI release on business sentiment lifted the cable in January despite an advanced phase of its rebound; this time the pound has also gained much recently thanks to the announcement of snap elections and has already bounced off of an important support; source: xStation5

 1:30 pm BST Canada, wholesale sales. Market consensus is for a 1% MoM correction after the strongest month since 2009 previously (+3.3% was reported). CAD has withstood well the decline of oil last week and a soft CPI print and maintains the positive momentum ahead of this release.

We won’t get much from central bankers today. Neel Kashkari from Fed will be speaking at 4:30 pm BST, but his views are too far from the FOMC consensus to make the market react to news from him, especially that he seemed to downplay recently anything Fed could do next (not worrying about the impact of balance sheet normalization on US stocks and claiming that the issue of the next rate hike doesn’t really matter for the big picture)


This article is provided for general information purposes only. Any opinions, analyses, prices or other content is provided for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Any research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Any information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and any person acting on this information does so entirely at their own risk, we do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.