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Calendar for today: will CBI data back the GBP?

The markets have received a strong positive signal due to French elections and it looks like no data release now could spoil the mood. The top release today, Ifo index, actually only strengthened the optimism by indicating an increasing economic momentum in 2Q in Germany. What’s still in the calendar today could prove important for CAD and GBP, but highly unlikely to affect the global market sentiment.

11 am BST, UK, CBI business optimism index (released quarterly) and CBI trends. The report proved to offer a push for the GBP in January (the previous quarterly release) and this time the market is prepared to see some correction after that positive surprise and is once again assuming that the strong prints of monthly CBI trends index for new orders should no longer be seen. The last two readings were much larger than expected and the background story for the GBP was recently weakened by poor retail sales. So it seems that the British currency should be quite sensitive to this event. 

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 The previous quarterly CBI release on business sentiment lifted the cable in January despite an advanced phase of its rebound; this time the pound has also gained much recently thanks to the announcement of snap elections and has already bounced off of an important support; source: xStation5

 1:30 pm BST Canada, wholesale sales. Market consensus is for a 1% MoM correction after the strongest month since 2009 previously (+3.3% was reported). CAD has withstood well the decline of oil last week and a soft CPI print and maintains the positive momentum ahead of this release.

We won’t get much from central bankers today. Neel Kashkari from Fed will be speaking at 4:30 pm BST, but his views are too far from the FOMC consensus to make the market react to news from him, especially that he seemed to downplay recently anything Fed could do next (not worrying about the impact of balance sheet normalization on US stocks and claiming that the issue of the next rate hike doesn’t really matter for the big picture)

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