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Ahead of UK labor data

9:30 data from the UK is one of today’s highlights. The markets expect the same rate of claimant count, despite a slightly higher jobless cliams number, wage growth and unemployment rate are also expected to stay unchanged.

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 Source: Bloomberg

Bank of England showed in its August projection that some deterioration of the labor market conditions due to Brexit should already be seen in 2H of the year when it comes to earnings growth and employment. This was a generally gloomy vision and which so far totally failed to materialize apart from a massive loss of value by the pound. This may still be too early to see negative reaction of the labor market, but any slippage below the consensus figures may be treated as a sign of Brexit effect.

On the other hand PMIs suggested an important improvement in services employment (the best level of employment index since April). Manufacturing PMI report pointed out that in AUgust employment index was back in the expansion territory and the situation only imporved in September.

GBP has already managed to break out of the range vs EUR yesterday, so any positive deviations from expectations may also have high impact on the currency.

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