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ADP smashes forecasts to come in at 7-month high; Muted reaction in USD


  • ADP employment change: 250k vs 191k and 185k prior
  • Despite the beat USD remains under pressure
  • NFP report tomorrow at 1:30PM (GMT) 

A stronger than expected reading in the ADP employment change has raised hopes ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report and provided another positive data point for the US dollar after yesterday’s ISM manufacturing PMI beat forecasts. This afternoon’s print of 250k was well above the 191k expected and also marked a large increase on the prior reading of 185k (revised down from 190k). 

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 The ADP and NFP releases have had a fairly strong correlation over the past seven years. Source: XTB Macrobond

The market reaction has seen a small pickup in the US dollar but it remains lower on the day against the majority of its peers. Only the Japanese Yen, Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real are falling against the buck today with all other currencies making ground. 

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 The US dollar has perked up since the release but remains lower on the day against most of its peers: Source: xStation

The GBPUSD is one USD pair in particular at an interesting level having printed a (near) textbook bearish engulfing candle yesterday. The market has since moved higher today, in part by a solid UK services PMI print this morning, but unless it breaks above the prior resistance zone from 1.3611-1.3656 then a correction could occur. This may also be viewed as a possible double top formation developing.

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 The GBPUSD could be one USD pair to keep an eye on after printing a bearish reversal close to prior resistance yesterday. Source: xStation 

A preview of tomorrow’s NFP report can be found here. The post looks at the data itself and the impact it could have on the EURUSD and the DE30. 



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