The most popular FX pair hit its highest level since the start of 2015 last week but reversed after popping above the 1.20 handle. Whilst the longer term uptrend remains intact there is now some suggestion that a pullback could be in store. Taking Fibonacci retracements from the large gap higher seen after the 1st round of the French election can provide some possible targets for a pullback against the prevailing uptrend. The 38.2% at 1.1543 could be of particular interest given that it also coincides with the prior resistance around the prior highs of the range, with the previous resistance now possibly offering support.
Possible support: 1.1822, 1.1741, 1.1543
Possible resistance: 1.1925, 1.2061, 1.2200
This pair has fallen to its lowest level in just over two years and made a break below prior support at 1.2415. After a recent period of consolidation there could be further downside ahead with the downtrend seen since May looking to take another leg lower. The most recent weekly candle is particularly worrying for longs with an attempted rally fizzling and fading out and an inverted hammer forming.
Possible support: 1.2339 (weekly low at time of writing), 1.2225, 1.2000
Possible resistance: 1.2415, 1.2705, 1.3000
Price broke out of a 12-week long consolidation last week to the upside. The top of the range around 1.7955 also coincides with the 38.2% fib retracement of the declines seen from the highs back in May and this now becomes a key level to watch going forward. Whilst the market is above 1.7955 then further gains are possible with the 61.8% at 1.8338 and the 78.6% at 1.8610 possible targets. A break back below 1.7955 would change the market structure and pave the way for a revisit of the lows around 1.7350.
Possible support: 1.7955, 1.7719, 1.7336
Possible resistance: 1.8146, 1.8338, 1.8610
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